Obama retook the lead in most of the other polls. I guess we still have A LOT of work there. Otherwise, as long as we maintain good leads in all these other states & win Ohio, Virginia, and/or Florida, we win hands down. :-)

Please add Florida to the List:
New Orlando Sentinel/Mason-Dixon Poll/Aug. 25-26/625 Likely Voters/MOE 4.0
Barack Obama (D) 45 %
John McCain (R) 44 %
Undecided 11 %

Just a remember:
Mason-Dixon Ohio Cleveland Plain Dealer Poll may come out Saturday.

The New Mexico result is... questionable. That's one of the worst outliers we've seen this entire cycle.

Nevada and New Mexico are pleasant surprises at least.  We'll know after the GOP convention how things are shaping up for November.  Obama's vastly superior organization and greater voter enthusiasm is probably good for 1-2 point overperformance relative to the pollsters' likely voter models.

If Obama carries Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, OR Nevada, he will almost certainly win the election.

The Florida Poll was done by Mason-Dixon considered as the best Pollster in the Country.

State polls are laughable. I allow private chuckles every day when posters fixate on state polls. It's screams of novice.

The national margin dictates where the states will fall in line, and national averaging is very accurate. If Obama leads nationally by a couple of points, he doesn't lead New Mexico by 13 or Nevada by 5. High comedy.

I've lived in Nevada for 20+ years. The state has 34-37% self-identified conservatives in every survey. That's the foundational reference point, not flimsy state polls. I'm amazed analysts who look for mathematical guidelines are so content to ignore those liberal/conservative percentages. Obviously they never actually wager on this stuff or they wouldn't be so comfortably dense.

The cow counties are allowed to vote in Nevada. Clark County under performs. Every local political analyst talks about the GOP advantages statewide in Nevada. That is legit, and doesn't equate to a 5 point Obama lead in Nevada unless he leads nationally by similar margin. The Hispanic numbers in Nevada do not yet translate to the voting booth -- not legal, not yet 18, or not registered.

On the other hand, the Florida margin is logical. McCain has been over stated in Florida. There's zero chance Obama falters by 5-6 points compared to his national number in Florida, yet that's what some sites want us to believe, based on their blindfolded clutching of state polls.

Florida in 2004 was 20% liberal, 34% conservative. In 2006 it was 20% liberal, 33% conservative. That is the definition of a swing state, about 1-2% more conservative than the nation itself. That's Florida. It went to dead even with the nation in 2000 when we caught the GOP napping, taking the state for granted. Obama may trail where Hillary would have been in Florida by about 1% due to demographic weakness, but not several points. The surveys that pretend Obama will significantly lead or trail a generic Democrat in a given state are crappiola.

The liberal/conservative percentages scream, among other things, that Indiana is not a swing state regardless of state polls, and Florida is very much in play. Deny the fundamentals are your peril.