Convention conventional wisdom dictates a media saturated event that leads to a marked bump in the polls The attention drawn to them by the press on speeches and platforms and to real or imagined controversies are long cherised staples of the pageant. But all this is wrong in the modern age.  Yes, some attention will lead to some spike in the polls; but by and large, the individuals and the parties have settled as well delivered their message; so all this attention gathering leads not to much except to frustrate journalists.  This odd anachronistic institution does little to advance the passions of either party. The conventions do serve one objective, unite the base, and in this sense the Democratic Party meeting should be a success. The Republican party meeting will not have as much of an impact since MCCain going early to the well of negative campaigning accomplished as much. Interestingly enough, McCain's VP choice may present some problems, from chosing a pro-choicer to someone with little experience. Unlike Biden, I do not think there is a safe pick amomg the republicans. So I predict a plus 5 Obama advantage after the convention which will dissipate after the Republican convention. The net result is that we will be where we are and have been summer all summer long: a close race where republicans will be required to win just about every toss-up state to prevail, and the convention itself will remain a distant memory.