On July 8th I predicted an obama-biden ticket would win 306 electoral votes:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/7/8/12553 4/6701

Since then there have been many changes that have forced me to change my opinion.  First, here is what I expect to happen:

1.  Obama-Biden to end up the Democratic convention leading McCain in the polls by 13:
Obama 52
McCain 39

2.  I expect McCain to pick a woman (Hutchinson of Texas) or some other non-white male.

(If somehow Colin Powell joins the ticket it is over for Obama. But I predict he won't do that because he truly supports Obama.
It would spell disaster for Obama because McCain would challenge him for the "change" label in a racial sense and give moderates who feel guilty voting against "the black guy" an easy out)

3.  After the Republican Convention, McCain-Hutchinson will take a slim lead:

McCain 46
Obama  44

4.  On the night of the 1st debate:

Obama 46
McCain 44
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Here are the problems that have changed an Obama victory into trouble (no order):

1.  Colorado has an  Affirmative Action ballot question that will force Obama to take a position:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008 -08-24-affirmative_N.htm

McCain will support preferences based on economic need
Obama will wind up supporting race based preferences and opposing the initiatives because of the leftwing in the Dem and black community.

This will cause defeat in Colorado and Virginia because of 3rd party ads.

2.  The U.S. will declare (rightfully) declare victory in Iraq and announce a timetable for withdrawal based on conditions on the ground.  This timetable will be essentially the Obama plan.

So McCain will present the same plan as Obama EXCEPT:

McCain will argue his surge plan led to victory,
while
Obama opposed the surge and didn't have a plan for victory but just wanted to withdraw.

Obama will lose badly in this area.

3.  McCain will own the energy issue with a combination plan of drilling, conservation, new technology, etc.  There isn't any rightwing group to offend, so McCain can offer anything he wants.  Obama has to keep the leftwing happy by trying to move the U.S.  away from oil drilling.  

This is a political loser.  He either flip flops for political gain or takes a political hit for being too "liberal".

4.  Obama and his people continue to resent Bill Clinton and HRC to a lesser extent.  By not retiring her (public) debt, consulting her with the VP pick, and making some grand gesture of apology for the primary, I expect the Clintons to sabotage this election in a passive-aggressive way.

I don't think it will happen this week at the conventions. I think they both will be great actors and read the lines the proper way.  But as the election grows near, this could all fall apart as people get ready to Cover their A's.

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That said, I support Obama-Biden 2008 and have solutions that can help Democrats sweep into office in 2009:

1.  Offer a mend it-don't end it update to Affirmative Action that says:

move away from racial preferences towards a needs based agenda in most areas.

still support affirmative action where there is a historical need for diversity in positions of power.  

So this would mean no race based AA for colleges, jobs, etc.
Instead use economics, life circumstances. (In most cases, the most neediest of minorities would still get a preference, but so too would many whites).

Also it would mean we would continue to have AA for top jobs like College Presidents, Leadership training programs, Military, government jobs, business loans/programs, etc.

Most people understand we need our leaders to truly represent the population in as many ways as possible, but they also understand that on a daily - everyday level, race doesn't factor into the lives of many people and it is unfair to have any preferences there.

We need to make it clear that we understand that America is a good place today, way better than it used to be, and is on path to eliminate the need for any race based remedies in the next generation.

2.  Support "real change" in a policy way.  I have advocated this from the primary. It can be on any number of topics.  Obama-Biden need  to break away from at least one of the Democratic constituency groups and show that they represent a "new" approach.

I propose

a.
 Universal School Vouchers.  Not means tested, but for everyone.  People who want to support the public schools can take their voucher there.  It can be coupled with INCREASED educational spending so people can't argue there would be a money drain on the public school.

b.

A real drilling plan that creates jobs in America.  Challenge the private sector to use American technology to do it safely.

This coupled with plans for Alternative Fuels would be good for America and good politics.

Set a goal for more energy production within 2 years, and Energy Independence in 8 years using alternatives and fossil fuels.

3.
Find a way to get the Clintons invested in an Obama victory.  They both like McCain and are comfortable with the Democrats controlling the Congress and a McCain White House.  

Obama should:
a. explicitly apologize to Bill for his supporters attack on Clinton.

b. work with Clinton on the above Affirmative Action policy
c. support HRC for Majority Leader in the Senate, and allow HRC to have veto over domestic policy.
d. allow Bill Clinton to have veto over foreign policy

I realize the word "veto" is strong, but Obama must convince both of them, that an Obama admin. would be a 3rd Clinton admin.

e. make it clear that Bill Clinton modernized the Dem party and America and made it possible for him to run/win.

3.  Strongly oppose the California Supreme Court decision, and strongly support traditional marriage.  Even though it appears to be popular in California, failure to stand up to this will lose key states.

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This next week won't matter one bit in November.
We're in trouble again on the Presidential level.
But we have plenty of time to offer America a positive agenda, and install Democrats as a true majority party.

Craig Farmer
making the word "liberal" safe again!

I know the above is tough medicine