in this poll that a generic Democrat would defeat a generic Republican by twenty points? The generic advantage from Rasmussen is twelve points.
I agree that Obama is ahead by 5-6 points on average, which is pretty much the margin that Clinton defeated Bush by in 1992; that's he's only getting around 75-80% support from dems suggests that McCain is only getting around 85% from Republicans or Obama has quite an advantage among independents.
Yes but, the percentages always tighten up close to the actual election. There is not much room now at 5 or 6 points for it to tighten futher. Nevertheless, the polls will change a hundred times before the GE. It would be nice if there was a larger difference between the two and I see it as a concern that there isn't, too.
Obama should be up around the 9-11 point range, rather than the 5-6 point range. I don't think it has been mentioned enough how terrible a candidate John McCain has been since he locked up his party's nomination; he couldn't gain a point on either Obama or Clinton during the last four months, despite leading by both of them by almost double digits according to Rasmussen and Gallup at the height of the Wright controversy.
I thought the John McCain who delivered his post-Wisconsin speech was going to be one tough customer for both candidates; that speech that Mark Salter wrote for him was badass, a perfect hitpiece on Obama. Since then, it seems as if McCain and Salter have taken an extended nap or one really long dump.
It seems that he has just dumped his old campaign manager, and a new one has appeared. The new one is from Bush's old campaign group. I guess Bush was supposed to have run an excellent campaign, even though I didn't see the excellency in it. However, the new guy is someone from the rove era. We will have to see how it goes now. I thought McCain was dead in the water months back, but somehow he made a comeback. Almost like the movie, Halloween. McCain was almost catatonic, and almost surely dead, and then he reappeared and won. Shit happens.
